ATLANTA — Could you imagine another nine seasons of Nick Saban at Alabama? What a nightmare for the rest of the college football world!
Saban, who turns 67 on Oct. 31, will coach until he is 75, which would happen on Halloween 2026, former Florida and South Carolina coach Steve Spurrier, who is 73, has said. Spurrier, who retired from South Carolina during the 2015 season, is the only coach in SEC history to have coached into his 70s.
Former LSU defensive end Marcus Spears, who played on Saban's national championship team at LSU in the 2003 season, also said on Wednesday at the Southeastern Conference Media Days that he thought Saban would coach until he is 75.
It is a nice round number, and it would mean Saban would have spent an even 20 seasons at Alabama. Bear Bryant coached only five more than that — 25 from 1958 through 1982 with six national championships (1961, '64, '65, '73, '78 and '79). Saban has already won six in just the last 13 college seasons (2003 at LSU, 2009, '11, '12, '15 and '17 at Alabama), not counting 2005 and '06 when he was the Miami Dolphins head coach in the NFL.
Funny, I always remember what an LSU official said at Walk-On's restaurant near LSU in January of 2007 just after Saban was hired by Alabama.
"He'll be gone in five years," he said defensively and wishfully, trying to hide the fear of what could happen instead, which has been LSU's and the rest of the SEC's worst nightmare.
Nearly 11 years later, and Saban might not even be gone five years from now.
"I really enjoy what I'm doing right now, and as long as I'm healthy and I can do it, I'm going to continue to do it and not worry about any numbers or what my age is or anything like that," Saban said at SEC Media Days. "So, I'm going to continue to do this for as long as I feel like I can make a positive contribution and as long as I feel healthy enough to do it. And, you know, our noon basketball team was undefeated again this year (Alabama coaching staff pick-up games), so that's always an indicator to me that I can make it through another season."
And it is not a reach to say he could walk away at 75 with 10 national titles. That would only be four in the next nine years. He won his last four over the previous seven years.
Saban remains in the No. 1 position in this ranking of coaches for the ninth straight year.
2. Jimbo Fisher, Texas A&M: The only other coach in the league with a national championship and the closest thing to the next Nick Saban in the SEC and a contender for that role nationally as well.
People forget that Fisher inherited a Florida State program from coach Bobby Bowden in 2010 that had fallen to the depths of three 7-6 seasons from 2006 through 2009. Fisher was part of that fall as he was offensive coordinator and coach in waiting from 2007-09 after leaving LSU's offensive coordinator post that he held from 2000-06. But once he took over, he won double-digit games six times in seven seasons with the national championship in the 2013 season and a Final Four finish in 2014 before the Seminoles fell from 10-3 in 2015 and '16 to 7-6 last season.
LSU may well regret not hiring Fisher late in the 2015 and '16 seasons for the next five to 10 years. It would have been expensive, but LSU still should have pulled the trigger for the passing offense alone. LSU people would have been celebrating as hard as Alabama fans did when Saban replaced Mike Shula. Fisher would have been the first true offensive coordinator/quarterback coach ever to be LSU's head coach, and he remains the best offensive coordinator in LSU history. All of LSU's pain and suffering in the passing game would have been answered.
And it could've gotten Fisher for less than the $7.5 million for 10 years that A&M is paying. LSU's mistake was not looking at Fisher as a smart investment for the future as A&M is. This was LSU chancellor Mark Emmert's thinking in November of 1999 when he hired Nick Saban from Michigan State for the ungodly price of $1.2 million a year for five years. With the loot from the SEC Network added to the annual haul, LSU had the money to get Fisher. It's in the process of dropping $23 million for improvements to the football operations facility, which doesn't need them. It needs a more successful head coach first.
Instead, Alleva was not big enough and smart enough to hire Fisher, perhaps because Alleva did not want to hire his next boss. Perhaps he wanted someone without as much previous accomplishment so as to better keep under his thumb. Instead, Alleva settled for a turnkey solution in '16 after failing to hire Houston's Tom Herman, who everybody but Alleva always knew was Texas bound.
Fisher will not win big immediately or as soon as he would have at LSU. But he will eventually win a national championship at Texas A&M while LSU wonders what might have been and may end up likely spending as much money over the years replacing coordinators and possibly a head coach.
3. Dan Mullen, Florida: Former Florida athletic director Jeremy Foley should have hired Mullen from Mississippi State for this job when he hired Jim McElwain from Colorado State after the 2014 season. But, much like Alleva, he blew it. Mullen made Mississippi State a consistent winner with five seasons of eight wins or more over the last eight seasons. That is difficult to do in Starkville, Mississippi. Mullen will be Florida's best coach in the long term since Urban Meyer.
4. Gus Malzahn, Auburn: Just two years ago, Malzahn faced Les Miles in the "Fire Bowl" in Auburn. Somehow he survived that and three mediocre seasons from 2014-16 of 23-16 overall and 11-13 in the SEC to nearly reach the Final Four last year with a 10-4 and 7-1 finish. Which is the real Malzahn? The coach of last season and his first at Auburn in 2013 when he went 12-2 and 7-1 and reached the national title game? Or the average, indecisive one in between. He has had to learn the difference and should be very good this season.
5. Mark Stoops, Kentucky: Could you imagine what this guy would be doing at a football school? Stoops has put up back-to-back seasons of 7-6 and 4-4 at Kentucky, where it is harder to win than Starkville. He is the first coach to inherit a losing program at Kentucky (2-10 and 0-8 under Joker Phillips in 2012) and put up two consecutive winning seasons since Jerry Claiborne went 6-5-1 and 9-3 in 1983 and '84 after following Fran Curci, who went 3-8 and 2-4 in 1981.
6. Kirby Smart, Georgia: Sure, No. 6 seems a little low for a coach who just led the Bulldogs to the SEC title and a national runner-up finish at 13-2 and 7-1. But Smart has only two seasons in, and he did inherit a very good program from Mark Richt.
Georgia finished 10-3 twice and 11-5 in the SEC in the two seasons before Smart went 8-5 and 4-4 in 2016. Georgia also had four double-digit win seasons from 2011-15 with a 30-10 mark in the SEC, two East titles, and Richt came very close to winning the national championship in the 2012 season. Georgia finished five yards away from the winning touchdown in he SEC Championship Game in '12 as time ran out in a 32-28 loss to Alabama, which easily beat Notre Dame, 42-14, for the national tile. Georgia would have also beat Notre Dame.
Bottom line, Smart walked into a much better situation than most and has more to prove to rise in this ranking.
7. Will Muschamp, South Carolina: The third Saban assistant at LSU in this poll behind Fisher and Smart, Muschamp is coming off a great year as he went 9-4 and 5-3 last year following a 6-7 and 3-5 finish in his first year in 2016. He did inherit a suffering program, though, as the Gamecocks were 3-9 and 1-7 in Spurrier's last season in 2015.
Muschamp's second year as a head coach was similar to that of Smart. He went 11-2 and 7-1 in 2012 at Florida after a so-so 7-6 and 3-5 opening campaign in 2011 after following Urban Meyer, who had dipped to 8-4 and 4-4 in 2010. Muschamp proceeded to go 11-13 and 7-9 with some bad offenses after that and was fired.
He must learn from his mistakes after getting a rare second chance at a major program following a firing.
8. Ed Orgeron, LSU: Coach O so far has had dramatically mixed results. By the numbers, he looks good at 15-6 overall and 10-4 in the SEC with two Citrus Bowl appearances. There was the very impressive, 27-23, upset of No. 10 Auburn last season after trailing 20-0 in the second quarter.
The problem is how and to whom LSU has lost. There was a 37-7 defeat last year at Mississippi State, which couldn't stay on the field with Auburn or Georgia. And there was the embarrassing 24-21 loss to 20-point underdog Troy — one of the worst upsets in LSU history.
Marketed as a recruiting star, Orgeron did not have a great first full class as his 2018 group was only ranked a pedestrian No. 13. And he was unable to sign a star tailback when the world knew for more than a year that LSU would have an opening in 2018. As a result, LSU goes into 2018 without a gaping hole at the position for the first time since the 1990s. He also missed at cornerback, which is amazing because defensive backs are grown in Louisiana. But he has done well in the transfer game as Ohio State graduate transfer quarterback Joe Burrow may just save LSU's season from the projected depths of 6-6. His best receiver may be Texas Tech transfer Jonathan Giles.
Orgeron is 12-4 and 10-3 as an interim coach at LSU and USC, which is very good and had much to do with him landing the LSU permanent job. But remember, he was 10-25 and 3-21 in three seasons at Ole Miss from 2005-07. Yes, Ole Miss can be a difficult place to win, but the coach before him — David Cutcliffe — had five winning seasons out of six, and the one after him — Houston Nutt — had two out of four. Orgeron's best season in Oxford was 4-8 and 2-6. Steve Sloan from 1978-82 is the only other coach in Ole Miss history to coach three or more seasons and not have a winning season.
Orgeron's future at LSU could depend on how well Steve Ensminger does as a full-time offensive coordinator for the first time since 1998. A top-five signing class in 2019 is a must, and it's ranked No. 9 now with the nation's top cornerback in Derek Stingley Jr.
But first, Orgeron must survive 2018 against a very difficult schedule.
9. Barry Odom, Missouri: At Missouri in various football capacities since 2003, Odom gradually improved last year to 7-6 and 4-4 after a 4-8 and 2-6 start that followed Gary Pinkell's last season of 5-7 and 1-7. Could Les Miles be better than 11-14 and 6-10 is the question. Miles was interested in the job when he thought he was going to get fired in 2015, but Missouri was not interested in him.
10. Joe Moorhead, Mississippi State: An impressive selection who won at Fordham — 32-8 over his last three seasons. Then he coordinated the offense at Penn State under former Vanderbilt sensation James Franklin the last two seasons. It's hard to win in Starkville, and it will be harder to come close to duplicating what Mullen did.
11. Chad Morris, Arkansas: Less than a decade ago, he was a high school coach in his 40s, but he has been rising fast with a year at Tulsa as offensive coordinator in 2010 and three as Clemson's OC before taking the head coaching job at SMU. He went from 2-10 and 1-7 to 5-7 and 3-5 and finally to 7-5 and 4-4. Now 50, he will try to raise the Hogs from mediocrity as Bret Bielema was 11-14 and 4-12 the last two seasons.
12. Derek Mason, Vanderbilt: He has been unable to match his predecessor, James Frankin, who was 18-8 and 9-7 in 2012-13. Mason has not had a winning season through four.
13. Matt Luke, Ole Miss: He went 6-6 and 3-5 as an interim coach last year, and many thought he would not be retained. But with the NCAA probation and a 31-28 win over Mississippi State to end the season, at the moment, why not?
14. Jeremy Pruitt, Tennessee: Aaron Murray was not contacted for this column. Pruitt comes in last as he is the only coach in the league who has not yet been a head coach. Smart and Odom were Nos. 13 and 14 here two years ago.