Well, you're welcome. You see, we knew that it was going to rain this week. So the weather department collaborated, and decided that the rain should come on Thursday because there were no Mardi Gras parades that day. AND, we figured most people would want to be outside this weekend to tailgate for the Super Bowl or at least toss the football around. So Thursday it was, we decided. And of course, it's Thursday and here the rain is. Boo ya.
I'm kidding. We don't have control over the weather (although more than a few people think we do...) All joking aside, the timing of this rain did work out pretty good. But now that it is here, let's look at a few in depth weather details. We'll start by looking at the surface map.
What this allows us to see whats going on with the atomosphere on a basic level. In our case, we have a low pressure system moving right by us. This is another El Nino low here, the same type of system we've had to deal with all season. Another one. I know.
Usually severe weather happens because a cold front swings through. Cold fronts cause a lot of instability which is needed for thunderstorms to pop up. We can check the amount of instability for a system by looking at what we call the "Lifted Index". If the Lifted Index is -8 or less, there is extreme instability meaning T-Storms are likely. -4 to -7 means large instability, 0 to -4 means marginal instability, and any positive number means the atmosphere is stable and thunderstorms won't likely happen. Today the Lifted Index is 19 meaning we probably won't get too many thunderstorms; mainly just solid rain.
Now the question becomes how much rain? The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast shows us that we fit right in the 2-4" range, which is what we've been going with all week. At times today the rain could be a bit heavier and certain areas getting 5" really isn't out of the question.
But you know what? I'm ok with this rain. After freezes killed most of my plants and I had to chop them down, they could use this water. Plus, I plan on going to the Oshun parade tomorrow and I'd rather it rain today and be dry tomorrow. Yes, even weather people get picky about the forecast.
