Most of us in the Gulf South are familiar with Dr. Gray and his hurricane forecasts. For those who arent: Dr. Gray is a professor of Atmospheric Science at Colorado State University and every year he puts out a seasonal hurricane outlook. How are things shaping up this year? Above average? Below average? Why? Etc.
Well, on April 7, 2010 Dr. Gray released an update to his original forecast from December 2009. You can find the whole report here, but I'll trim it down for you. As of December 2009, Dr. Gray's predictions were as follows: 11-16 named storms, 6-8 hurricanes and 3-5 major hurricanes (category 3 or higher). In his April update he forecasts 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 major hurricanes. He also gave these stats: a 69% chance of a major hurricane hitting a US coastline, a 45% chance that a major hurricane will hit the East Coast including Peninsula Florida and a 44% chance that a major hurricane hits the Gulf Coast from Panhandle Florida to Brownsville Texas.
Whew! Ok thats a lot of numbers. It's interesting that Dr. Gray went on the higher end of all of his initial preditions, but really not a surprise. He did it for two reasons: El Nino is breaking down and the Tropical Atlantic is warmer than normal. El Nino, in the summer months, does a good job of protecting us from hurricane formation. It increases wind shear, which literally rips apart hurricanes before they can get stronger. As El Nino breaks down, which it is forecast to do in the next 3 months, we lose that protection. Which is no good. And of course, the warmer the Tropical Atlantic, the stronger storms can get.
Here is the thing though: Hurricane predictions, especially months in advance, are not... ahem... the most accurate. As a weatherman, I hate to say that a fellow forecaster is inaccurate but the truth is there are so many factors in place. El Nino must break down, storms must form in certain areas, then follow a certain path, then surface features must be in distinct spots, etc. It's REALLY hard to forecast that. Heck, it's hard to forecast 7 days out, let alone 7 months out.
So, am I concerned? Not at this point. As a professional, I always read this stuff and try to learn something from it, but I don't take it as commandment. However, it's never a bad thing to be prepared...
