So this oil spill is a pretty big deal if you ask me. Just last night I was sitting on my back patio and I overheard my neighbors talking. "So, what's gonna happen with the spill?" I heard them say ("the spill" it's become so big that, like Madonna, it doesn't even need a full name.) At the grocery store I heard the same thing, "You think that oil is going to make it here?" I hope not, but I figured for today I would try to analyze it from a weather perspective. Let's give it a shot.
When it comes to oil spills the water current is what drives the direction of the oil. Obviously water runs toward the coastline, so it should be no surprise that that is the way the sheen is moving. But other factors can play a role as well. We've been watching the winds a lot because the friction between the wind and the oil slick can push the slick across the surface of the water. Over the next 4 days the winds are persistently blowing out of the South/Southeast between 15-25 knots (which is about 20-30 mph). A Southeast wind is... well, not great in this situation, as it leads the sheen in the direction of The Chandeleur Islands.
Another natural thing that could affect the oil sheen - wave heights. Rough seas can split the sheen apart, carrying some oil in one direction and some in another. According to the NOAA Marine Forecast for the Gulf waters, Friday's heights are 5 to 7 feet, Saturday's are 8 to 11 feet and Sunday's are 3 to 7 feet. To be honest though, I'm not sure that "splitting" up the sheen is actually a good thing...
So yes, wind speed/direction and wave heights will end up playing a role in where the oil moves, but ultimately the water currents will be the biggest factor. But now for the wrench in this whole thing: weather and water currents are variable and hard to predict. So although the oil path is forecast to move past Pass A Loutre Friday and The Chandeleur Islands on Sunday, at this point we'll have to wait and see.
April 25th image of oil slick in the Gulf.
Forecast winds for Saturday, May 1. Image shows winds blowing out of the South at 20 knots.
