NEW ORLEANS -- An Eyewitness News telephone poll conducted last week found 45 percent of those questioned chose Mitch Landrieu for mayor.
Troy Henry, the only other candidate in double digits, received 14 percent. Both John Georges and Rob Couhig received 8 percent of the votes, while James Perry got 3 percent and Nadine Ramsey got 2. Each of the other candidates got 1 percent or less.
19 percent of those questioned say they are undecided or don't know who they would vote for.
“It [the poll] says that Mitch Landrieu is the clear front runner in this campaign,” said Dr. Ron Faucheux, Ph.D., Eyewitness News Pollster.
The scientific survey of 500 voters shows Landrieu does well across the board, winning among whites, blacks, men, women and all ages.
Henry's core of support came in the African American community, while Couhig's strongest support came in the white community.
Landrieu also outscores the others among Republicans, Democrats and independents.
Pollster Ron Faucheux of the Clarus Research Group said the poll shows that Landrieu has one very big advantage over all of the others.
“Mitch Landrieu has very high name recognition,” said Faucheux. “Of course this is the third time he's run for mayor. He's served as lieutenant governor. He has a very well known political family. So you would expect his name recognition to be high.”
In a question about favorability, the telephone poll listed the names of the candidates and asked voters, “Have you heard of that person or not heard of that person?”
More than half of those questioned said they had not heard enough about Nadine Ramsey or James Perry rate them favorably or unfavorably.
Forty-two percent had not heard enough about Couhig, and 38 percent said they knew too little about Henry to rate him. For Georges, 31 percent for Georges.
Only seven percent said they didn't know enough about Landrieu to rate him.
“I think what we see in this election is that outside of Mitch Landrieu the other candidates have basically just introduced themselves. That they haven’t really engaged one another yet,” said Faucheux.
To beat Landrieu, Faucheux says the other candidates have to find a way to gain name recognition.
“I think that's one of the problems that all of the challengers to Mitch Landrieu have right now, and it's one of the big problems they have is needing money and time,” he said. “And of course the timing of this race benefits Landrieu because he starts out so far ahead.”
The exclusive Eyewitness News poll finds that Landrieu has a high favorability rating and low un-favorability rating among those questioned.
The poll shows he does well across town, but Faucheux stresses a lot can happen the remaining two and a half weeks.
“This race is not over by any means,” he said. “Other candidates still have the opportunity to gain momentum and to make this into a very highly competitive contest.”
Faucheux says Landrieu started out ahead of Ray Nagin four years ago and wound up losing.
“One of the things that Mitch Landrieu has to watch and the big question about his appeal right now is whether or not it's now at a peak high level and it just goes down from here, or whether he can hold what he's got and build on it,” said Faucheux.
He points out the poll finds 19 percent of voters are undecided, and when the poll asked how committed voters are, 57 percent of those who made a pick for mayor said they are sure they will stick with their choice.
But 39 percent said it is possible they could change their minds.
“Almost two in five voters seem to be willing to some extent to do that [change their mind],” said Faucheux. “And of course that's something that Mitch Landrieu has to watch very carefully. Even though he has a higher percentage of commitment than the other candidates do, at 67 percent, it still means that one third of his vote, which equates to 15 percent of the total vote, may be subject to being taken away from him.”
Pollster Ron Faucheux says 69 percent of the undecided voters are African American. Twenty-four percent are white.
As a result, he predicts a lot of the campaigning from now until election day will focus on the African American community.
