HOUMA -- Though officials had feared the worst from Hurricane Gustav, a landfall directly over Houma may have saved it from severe floods, with Grand Isle and the levee systems in Lafourche acting as barriers to break the surge for more-vulnerable bayou communities in Terrebonne.

"The angle of the storm may have been the real savior," said Robert Twilley, a coastal scientist with Louisiana State University. "The barriers around Larose helped knock down the damage for Houma."

Forecasters and coastal scientists had predicted storm surges of as much as 25 feet in Terrebonne if Gustav had taken a path predicted as late as Sunday, one that would have sent it ashore just west of the parish near Morgan City as a Category 3 hurricane.

LSU storm-surge models say a storm like that could flood downtown Houma with 9 feet of water.

However, Gustav took a different path, coming in at a slight angle from east to west around 10 Monday morning.

Instead of the massive storm surge that had been predicted, few homes -- if any -- in Terrebonne or Lafourche flooded. Gustav's main damage was caused by wind, clocked by the National Hurricane Center at 110 mph, sustained, as the storm's eye passed over Cocodrie.

The trajectory may well have verified that barrier islands work as the best form of natural protection for inland communities, Twilley added.

"That's going to be one of the more interesting observations to come out of this storm," Twilley said. "We should pay a great debt to Grand Isle; it took a great hit and a majority of the surge."

The more-devastating path would have taken Gustav over parishes to the west of Terrebonne, sending the storm's counter-clockwise winds pushing water from the Gulf of Mexico into the unprotected communities of lower Terrebonne and into Houma continually as it moved inland.

"Houma could not have asked for a better trajectory," he said. "The difference in track and strength of the storm made a huge difference in the level of flooding we saw."

Jerome Zeringue, former Terrebonne levee director and a top assistant in the Governor's Office of Coastal Activities, said that while Grand Isle and south Lafourche did take the brunt of the storm for Terrebonne, the weakened condition of the storm probably provided the most benefit to the parish.

"Even on Grand Isle, they didn't have as significant a surge as we'd predicted," Zeringue said.

Preliminary measurements showed a surge level between 8 to 12 feet on the island, he added.

In Terrebonne, gauges that measure storm surge recorded an 8-foot wall of water in Montegut, well below the 15 to 18 feet officials had estimated just 24 hours before landfall, Zeringue said.

"At that high estimate, there would have flooding in downtown Houma," Zeringue said.

Gustav's swift jog across the Gulf also prevented the storm from building up a large amount of surge, said Laura Buchtel, a WWL-TV meteorologist.

The storm's ultimate strength was another factor working in locals' favor. Though residents went to bed Saturday night with predictions of a Category 4 or 5 storm bearing down on the coast, weather conditions worked against Gustav.

Buchtel said the storm's swift clip and a prohibitive system of dry air sitting over the western Gulf worked together to weaken Gustav significantly.

"Certainly, if the storm had been a Category 4 as early predicted the surge and damage would have been much, much worse," Buchtel said.

The storm never had a chance to strengthen again after passing over Cuba as the dry air in the Gulf worked to deflate it, she said.

And once storms reach the coast, heat in the water dissipates and they lose their chance to grow.

The storm passed directly over the warm loop current that many weather officials predicted would strengthen it into a monste. But Buchtel said Gustav was moving too quickly to gain much power from the hot spot, advancing toward the coast at about 17 mph.

"That just goes to show you that the warm water isn't the only thing that goes into these forecasts," Buchtel said, adding that complicated factors work together to influence storms.

"The anticipation was something coming in with the size and strength of Katrina," said Windell Curole, interim regional levee director for Lafourche and Terrebonne parishes. "We were also fortunate that it didn't go in very forcefully."

Curole reported that the levees on the north end of the south Lafourche hurricane-protection system were hardly tested by Gustav's wrath and held up well. In the southern end, he said, waters came within a few feet of overtopping the 13-foot levee.

"We took a ride out when the winds were still going 50 mph and saw the Gulf, and it was scary," Curole said. "It was the Gulf right in front of you with only 4 foot to go before coming over the levee."

Zeringue said he was pleased local levees worked effectively to prevent what surge Gustav did muster. Levee systems in Lafourche and Terrebonne were tested to their maximum abilities – and passed, he said. Unlike Lafourche, Terrebonne's levees are only designed to protect against high tides, not hurricanes.

"Levees do play a role, and it's going to require levees to protect these coastal parishes," Zeringue said.

He cited Montegut, where levees held back the 8-foot surge with minor overtopping.

"Even as bad as the Terrebonne system is in regard to flood protection, it contributed and lessened the flooding," Zeringue said.

The tide turned in favor of Houma with Gustav, but Twilley warned that residents shouldn't forget their continued vulnerability when it comes to storm flooding.

You have to understand why that particular storm and track turned in your favor and know that you can't expect that from every storm," Twilley said. "We err on the side of caution because we have to."

You only have to look at recent hurricane history to know how unpredictable storms can be, Curole said. Katrina took aim right at Lafourche and Terrebonne but jogged east shortly before landfall.

"Who could have predicted that?" Curole asked. "If there's the potential it could kill you, you have to act like it will kill you. ... It's pretty simple. If you think someone might swing a baseball bat at you, you move out of the way, even if he might have missed you by just a little."