11:46 AM CDT on Tuesday, September 14, 2004

Associated Press

Warning that Hurricane Ivan will bring at least tropical storm-strength winds to the New Orleans area, officials urged residents Tuesday to evacuate the region.

The call by New Orleans city officials and those in the city's largest suburb, Jefferson Parish, fell short of a mandatory evacuation. But Mayor Ray Nagin and parish President Aaron Broussard both said the area faces strong winds and potential floods from Ivan.

"We're going to get hit," Broussard said during a news conference. "We don't know if were going to get a punch in the mouth or a kick in the knee. But we're going to get hit."

Nagin declared a state of emergency for the city, saying winds up to 75 mph were possible as far as 100 miles out from the center of Ivan. Based on current projections, the New Orleans area could begin seeing high winds and power outages as early as Wednesday, said Terry Tullier, the city's emergency preparedness director. Schools were closed throughout the New Orleans metropolitan area, which has about 1.6 million residents, and commercial traffic was almost nonexistent Tuesday as long lines formed at gasoline pumps and traffic began building on routes out of the area.

In St. Charles Parish, located adjacent to Jefferson Parish, officials ordered a mandatory evacuation of the parish's 49,000 residents. The Mississippi River cuts through the middle of the parish, which is bordered by Lake Pontchartrain, a potential source of flood waters.

Broussard said mandatory evacuations also have been called for the Jefferson Parish towns of Grand Isle -- Louisiana's only inhabited barrier island -- Jean Lafitte and other unincorporated areas susceptible to flooding.

Officials in Plaquemines Parish, southeast of New Orleans, ordered a mandatory evacuation for some low-lying areas and said the order to leave could be extended later in the day to the entire parish.

A sense of uncertainty surrounded the area as Ivan continued its crawl across the Gulf of Mexico. Although hurricane forecasters said Ivan probably would curve eastward to a landfall on the central Gulf, Nagin said that would take "perfect conditions" and that residents were quickly running out of time to leave.

Both Broussard and Nagin acknowledged there would be residents who decide to ride out the storm but encouraged them to fully prepared.

"If you want to take a chance, buy a lottery ticket," Broussard said. "Don't play around with this storm.

Broussard said that Hurricane Betsy, which devastated New Orleans in 1965, was a Category 3 storm.

"Ivan is a 5. Be prepared for power outages, don't think you'll be home watching soap operas as the storm goes through. Have enough water and food to stick it out," he said.

(Copyright 2004 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)