07:20 AM CDT on Monday, April 24, 2006

Bob Greene / WWL-TV News Reporter

With the mayoral primary election a thing of the past, all eyes have shifted to May 20 – the day incumbent Ray Nagin and Lt. Gov. Mitch Landrieu meet in a runoff to determine the future of the Crescent City.

Both candidates received a combined 67% of the vote, with 33% voters casting their ballots for someone else. According to political experts, Nagin and Landrieu will have challenges convincing those undecideds to vote for either one of them.

Susan Howell, political analyst, said she’s amazed by Saturday night’s results.

“It was a little surprising to me that Nagin got 38% percent. A little high; and I think he can be excited about it,” she said, though countered those numbers could be interpreted as good and bad news for the incumbent.

“Good that he did better than expected. He almost got 40%. Bad news is that 62% of the electorate voted against him,” Howell said.

Greg Rigamer, election analyst with GCR & Associates, broke the numbers down further along racial lines.

"The Mayor ran extremely strong in the African-American community but has lost a bit of his white support. In contrast, Mitch Landrieu ran very well in the African-American, as well as the white community,” Rigamer said.

Howell said Landrieu has to bring in those who voted for Ron Forman and Rob Couhig, and appeal more with white conservatives. It’s an arduous task for certain; but not as difficult as the one Nagin will face.

“I don't think he can get Forman voters and Couhig voters, but he's going to have to expand the electorate and bring in more African-American voters,” Howell said. That means he’ll have to reach more displaced voters than Landrieu.

It’s not an impossible task, according to Howell. And Nagin could still win some of conservative white vote on personality.

“People are going to look person to person. And Nagin (Saturday) night was very spontaneous, very articulate, he was funny, he was unscripted,” said Howell. “He was the Nagin that we elected in 2002.”

Rigamer said voters have been in need of strong leadership – a key message for the Mayor.

“…If (Nagin) comes up with a very strong statement to this regard, he'll start to put his base back together,” he said.

The Mayor has only got 27 days to do that. Meanwhile, Landrieu can be expected use that time to convince voters here and in other parts of the country that New Orleans needs a change.