NEW ORLEANS -- As New Orleans pursues the goal of getting back to its pre-Katrina population numbers, the race for mayor presses on -- and on election day, success will be measured by who's here and who's voting.
"Under normal conditions, an election succeeds because of the interest of the populace," said demographer Greg Rigamer of GCR & Associates. "People are interested in it, there's a buzz on the street, there's a lot of dialogue. That promotes turnout. Right now, we don't have that."
Rigamer said, out of the city's 272,000 registered voters, GCR identified about 153,000 people, who are likely to vote in the mayoral election. The number is based on past voting patterns.
"Behavior is predictable -- and what we do is look at the races that an individual has voted in previously," Rigamer said. "And for this particular election, we looked at individuals who voted in the presidential race and we're also looking at individuals that have registered since the presidential race. So, we're looking at people who have been active in recent months."
Out of those 153,000 voters, 59 percent are African American and about 34 percent are White.
"Now, we have a phenomenon in the race, where the leading African American candidate has dropped out and the remaining African American candidates are not polling significantly," Rigamer said. "So, there's a question about the level of interest in the race, within the African American community."
"This position as mayor of the city of New Orleans is not only a position of a huge amount of power, but it's also a position that has a symbolic means. It is symbolic when it comes to the African American community," said Dr. Gary Clark, chairperson of the political science department at Dillard University.
Clark said, with State Sen. Ed Murray leaving the mayoral race, the remaining African American candidates need to galvanize the black vote, in order to have a chance at the runoff.
"They have got to win over and consolidate the black vote. That is absolutely imperative," Clark said. "It's not their job now to engage in crossover votes. They've got to consolidate the vote, to make sure they are in a position that they can be in the runoff."
Yet, galvanizing voters is an expensive prospect, which could hinge on how much money each candidate has. Just what financial position each campaign is in will made much clearer on Thursday, when the campaigns' latest financial reports will be filed with the State Ethics Board.
