Alexandra Cranford / WWL Eyewitness News Forecast Team
A weekly discussion of the tropics from the Eyewitness News Forecast Team
Great news this week: the tropics are quiet again. A few tropical waves are floating around out there, but none will be able to strengthen much in the next few days.
Here’s why: that large swath of dry air is still stationed over the Atlantic Ocean, extending far west to the Caribbean Sea. The arid air is shutting down any systems that try to develop. A good example is Tropical Storm Erin, which formed last week near Africa. Erin fizzled out after it ventured into the central Atlantic and collided with that dry, dusty air.
Also, there’s a decent amount of wind shear. Those upper level winds will make it hard for systems to get going.
Models aren’t showing any big development this week, but they are indicating things may get more active at the end of August into early September. A key spot to watch will be near the African coast, where a moister air mass could serve as a breeding ground for tropical systems.
Historically, the end of August is a pretty active timeframe. The image at the top of this article shows all the points of origin for named storms forming at the end of August over the past 60 years.
Check back next week for your updated Talkin' Tropics discussion. Every week, we'll post a fresh tropics forecast for the week ahead.