Alexandra Cranford / WWL Eyewitness News Forecast Team
A weekly discussion of the tropics from the Eyewitness News Forecast Team
This week should be a pretty quiet one in the New Orleans area. No big storms are heading our way, and we’re not expecting any new disturbances in the Gulf. Instead, high pressure will take hold of our area. That means we’ll stay mostly dry and warm through the work week.
So what IS going on out there?
The remnants of the short-lived Tropical Storm Fernand will slide farther into Mexico and dump heavy rain there. Widespread 4-8 inches of rain are forecast for eastern Mexico, and a few spots could see up to a foot of rain. Flash floods and mudslides will be a concern. The system will quickly peter out as it moves inland.
While no systems will threaten us in Louisiana or Mississippi, activity should begin to stir near the African coast late this week. One wave in particular near the coast of Senegal will roll out over the ocean. We’ll be watching closely to see if it strengthens.
So far, tropical waves from Africa haven’t been able to grow much, because of a huge pocket of dry air and strong wind shear over much of the Atlantic Ocean.
But models have been hinting those hostile conditions will change slightly in the next week or two. The atmosphere will get a bit more humid, and wind shear will calm down a touch. That would give those waves from Africa a higher chance of developing by late this week into the early part of September.
Still, it’s been remarkably hard for strong storms to get going this year. And even if the waves are able to strengthen in the next couple of weeks, it could take a while before one reaches our side of the Atlantic. Right now models are curving the waves north over open waters before they approach the Caribbean Sea.
So to recap: a quiet week ahead for our part of the Gulf Coast. We’ll be watching the eastern Atlantic closely as conditions may soon turn more favorable for tropical development.
Keep checking our tropical video updates this week. Carl, Laura, Derek and Alexandra post new videos a few times a day. Check back next week for your updated Talkin' Tropics discussion. Every week, we'll post a fresh tropics forecast for the week ahead.