A new, exclusive WWL-TV survey shows Secretary of State Jay Dardenne leading a pack of candidates vying to replace Mitch Landrieu as Lieutenant Governor in a special election this fall, confirming the widely held belief that the most support right now is going to those candidates with the most statewide name recognition.
The telephone survey of 600 registered voters statewide shows Dardenne out front, with 20 percent of the vote, followed by country singer Sammy Kershaw, with 15 percent.
St. Tammany Parish president Kevin Davis garners 7 percent, while state Republican party chairman Roger Villere of Metairie has 4 percent. The rest of the potential candidates score 2 percent or less. Yet almost half the voters are still undecided.
Dr. Ron Faucheux, president of the Washington, D.C.-based Clarus Research Group, conducted the poll for WWL-TV and a consortium of Louisiana TV stations.
“What’s interesting is the top four candidates for Lt. Governor are all Republicans,” Faucheux said.
WWL-TV political analyst Clancy DuBos, political columnist and co-owner of Gambit, said the number two candidate in the poll is notable.
“What is surprising to me in this poll is Sammy Kershaw, a country and western star who isn't even current as a country and western star, but is known, is giving Dardenne a real race,” DuBos said.
Faucheux says name recognition is a big driver in this trial heat.
“Jay Dardenne has a successful track record of being elected statewide and he has the highest name recognition of the candidates,” Faucheux said.
Of the potential candidates, the survey shows Dardenne is known by 55 percent of the voters. Kershaw, who ran last time in the regular election, is familiar to 46 percent. Davis gets 27 percent recognition in the statewide poll. Villere scores 26 percent.
“You have Kevin Davis, whose recognition is generally more localized towards the area that he has served in public office,” Faucheux said.
“Next is Roger Villere, who as Republican state chairman has some recognition among Republicans around the state, but generally speaking not much recognition outside of the core base of the Republican party,” Faucheux said.
Faucheux said in a lot of ways, the Lt. Governor's race has yet to be waged. That's why 47 percent of the voters say they are undecided.
“Most voters have not seen or heard much of it. They’re not sure who the candidates are. They don’t know who most of the candidates are,” Faucheux said.
He points out that 65 percent of the African-American voters are undecided, adding that that could mean opportunity for a Democratic candidate in the contest.
“If one Democrat can build that base, then they can cause a lot of shifts in this race that we're not now seeing in the polling,” Faucheux said.
The poll has a margin of error of +/- 4 percent overall. It was conducted August 15 and 16.
