Cotton pickin', and other bowl predictions
07:42 PM CST on Friday, December 22, 2006
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The fact that I am able to bring to you my ninth annual college bowl selections is significant for two reasons.
One, it means that for more than eight years, readers have known the joy of waking up next to me.
Sort of.
Two, it means that those of us fighting the good fight against critics and college football fans who think (wrongly) the sport would be better served by a playoff remain on the winning side.
That's an argument for another day.
Let's get right to the picks which, as always, are guaranteed unless something goes wrong. We don't recommend wagering, legal or otherwise, although if you look carefully at the five KEY games and choose to put your kids' college savings on the line, that's strictly up to you.
You will thank me for it if, as in 2004, I go 4-1. As for last year, well, let's just say that with Texas winning the Rose Bowl, I am riding a one-game winning streak.
New Orleans Bowl: Rice minus 4 ½ over Troy.
It has been 45 years since the Owls made it to a bowl. After that wait, do you think they are going to lose to a school that named itself after a bad Brad Pitt movie?
Independence Bowl: Oklahoma State minus 2 over Alabama.
I like the fact that OSU quarterback Bobby Reid idolizes Joe Namath. I don't like the fact that while I can remember the KEY games of Namath's career – including Alabama's 1964 Orange Bowl loss to Texas – Reid was born after Namath retired from the NFL.
Texas Bowl: Rutgers minus 7 over Kansas State.
After winning a KEY Big East battle with Louisville, Rutgers was ranked in the top six in the BCS. The Wildcats, who lost to Baylor and Kansas, have a quarterback who threw seven more interceptions than touchdown passes.
Holiday Bowl: Texas A&M plus 5 over California.
The Golden Bears have the speed of Marshawn Lynch. The Aggies have the power of Jorvorskie Lane. Cal has better overall talent, but quarterback Nate Longshore struggles under pressure.
Do the Aggies bring the pressure? Ask Colt McCoy.
Alamo Bowl: Texas minus 9 ½ over Iowa.
I covered an Iowa-Texas bowl game in Anaheim, Calif., in which the Hawkeyes clobbered the Longhorns, and coach Hayden Fry dedicated the win (facetiously) to former Morning News staffer Harless Wade.
The HawKEYes (not a typo) have lost five of their last six games, so Kirk Ferentz won't be dedicating anything to anyone here.
Liberty Bowl: South Carolina minus 6 over Houston.
Steve Spurrier hasn't set the world on fire in Columbia. His Gamecocks lost five games, but none of those opponents were ranked worse than 12th at the time. The Cougars lost to Miami, Southern Miss (whom they later beat) and Louisiana-Lafayette. The difference between the SEC and Conference USA shows up here.
Insight Bowl: Minnesota plus 6 ½ over Texas Tech.
This one falls under the heading of "When the Morning News' Seven College Bowl Pickers Go One Way, Run the Other As Fast As You Can."
Cotton Bowl: Nebraska plus 2 over Auburn.
Auburn is without its touchdown leader, suspended tailback Brad Lester. The Tigers have a better team than Nebraska, but the Cornhuskers have been down long enough to think that the Cotton Bowl is a big deal.
Auburn wasn't awake for last year's early kickoff against the Badgers. Expect more of the same in Dallas.
Capital One Bowl: Arkansas minus 1 ½ over Wisconsin.
The Badgers gave an emotional performance in their bowl a year ago while saying goodbye to coach Barry Alvarez. In this one, they'll spend too much time waving goodbye to Darren McFadden.
Rose Bowl: Michigan plus 1 over USC.
As long as the Wolverines don't bemoan the fact they aren't getting a second chance against Ohio State, they will prove their superiority to the Trojans. The Pac-10 is not a great conference this year, and USC lost twice. A third defeat is on the way.
Fiesta Bowl: Boise State plus 7 ½ over Oklahoma.
Bob Stoops did a great job of rescuing the Sooners' season from the ashes, and it will be intriguing to see how close to 100 percent running back Adrian Peterson is for his game.
My guess is not very.
Boise State thrilled just to be here? Don't bet on that.
The Broncos ranked No. 2 in scoring (39.4 points) this season. They did it mostly against weak competition. When they got a chance to face a team from a BCS conference, they beat Oregon State – the team that knocked off Southern Cal – by 28.
Orange Bowl: Wake Forest plus 10 over Louisville.
The Demon Deacons run a "flexbone" offense and their head coach is Jim Grobe, and I can't tell you much about either one. But I do know that Wake Forest got here by creating turnovers (29) and winning games no one thought it could.
No one thinks Wake can beat Louisville. I don't either, really, but the Demon Deacons can stay within 10 against a team that couldn't get Rutgers off the field when it had a chance to make a push for a national championship appearance.
Sugar Bowl: LSU minus 9 over Notre Dame.
Brady Quinn has the KEYS to the ignition of Charlie Weis' offense. He'll need to put at least 30 points on the board because the Irish aren't going to slow down JaMarcus Russell and the Tigers.
Notre Dame struggles against teams with real speed. The Tigers have real speed.
This game will look a lot like Notre Dame's season-ending 44-24 loss to USC. Weis gets the most out of his talent, but, simply put, Les (Miles) has more.
BCS Championship: Ohio State minus 7 ½ over Florida.
The fact that the Gators deserve to play for the title doesn't mean that Florida has any real chance of upsetting the I-dotters. Florida won the toughest conference in the land, and it would have been embarrassing had Michigan, which might have a better team, been given a second chance before the Gators got their first.
That said, Florida struggled to win some KEY SEC games, beating Georgia by seven, Vanderbilt by six and South Carolina by one.
Winning got the Gators here, and they deserve a shot.
They don't have one.
E-mail wtcowlishaw@dallasnews.com