Since the Saints aren’t likely to play any starters against the Titans tonight and no one seems to care I figured I’d give you my season preview for the AFC.
NFL is king because unlike every other sport nobody has any clue what will happen the next four months. The experts, blogs, talking heads, fans, and even the teams themselves don’t know how the 17 Sundays will play out. Every city has hope and hope is what fuels the NFL. Cleveland Browns fans watched the New Orleans Saints just win the Super Bowl. If watching the Saints win a Super Bowl doesn’t make you believe any team can turn themselves around then you simply don’t believe in the impossible.
Here is the only thing I know for sure about trying to predict the NFL; Every year since 1990 at least six teams that made the playoffs the previous year failed to return to the playoffs. Also since 1990 seven last place teams have gone on to make the post season the following year including the Saints in 2000 and 2009. So basically if you want to have a chance at predicting the NFL season you better not expect last year’s teams to be the same this year and you better pick a garbage team to smell like a rose.
Instead of pulling my predictions out of thin air and then trying to justify them this year I’m going to pull my playoff picks out of a hat… literally. Then I will attempt to justify those selections.
Crazy? Perhaps. Stupid and mindless? Definitely. Odds my picks using this method will still be better than Peter King, Bill Simmons or any other sport writer following the NFL? High.
We call this game Out and In.
In one hat I have the six AFC playoff teams from 2009 and in the other I have the teams who were eating nachos and crying on Sundays in January. I’ll draw three teams from each hat because remember every year since 1990 three new teams make the playoffs.
First I have to pick the three AFC teams who made the playoffs in 2009 but will not in 2010
My first team out is…..
Indianapolis: It’s completely crazy to not have the Colts in the playoffs because the last time they lost a regular season game they actually cared about winning was October 27th…2008. They have won at least 12 games seven years in a row and as long as Peyton Manning is still playing at a top level they will continue to roll along. Except everything ends eventually and Indianapolis won’t be able to come from behind seven times in the fourth quarter like they did in 2009.
They don’t have a running game that I’m aware of and Tracy Porter traumatized them beyond belief. My fiancée’ picked the Colts name out of the hat and said, “Good luck convincing people Indy won’t make the playoffs.”
I think I just did.
My second team out is…
The New York Jets: Justifying the Jets won’t make the playoffs is actually pretty easy. Before Mark Sanchez morphed into a young John Elway and the Jets were on the verge of going to the Super Bowl they weren’t very good.
The Jets were a 7-7 football team losing to the Colts when Indianapolis decided to rest up for their future soul crushing loss to the Saints. The Jets then beat the don’t care Bengals the following week and snuck in the playoff back door. They then beat the Bengals again and Chargers because San Diego’s kicker always gags in the playoffs.
Then they led the Colts at halftime.
Now they are Super Bowl favorites? Please. How do you like this opening schedule? Baltimore, New England, Miami, Buffalo, Denver.
Looks like 1-4 to me. Rex Ryan is great entertainment but his belief that the Jets can play great defense and run their way to the Super Bowl is fantasy. The NFL is about having a great QB and having a defense that can make stops at big moments. The Jets have neither of those things and at the moment their All-Pro corner Darrelle Revis is reportedly in Vegas.
Our third team out is….
New England Patriots: The Patriots will be the 2008 Saints. They will score a ton of points, Tom Brady will be fantastic, and their defense will be horrid. I’ll just go ahead and say it, “The Patriots dominance is over.”
Bill Belichick is still a great coach but the Patriots have fallen back to the pack. If my playoff prediction of no Colts and Patriots comes true I think TV executives will need to be kept away from ledges and sharp objects.
I’m even having trouble talking myself into believe both Brady and Manning won’t make the playoffs but I’m really confident at least one will be sitting home in January.
So the Jets, Patriots, and Colts won’t make the playoffs in 2010 but which new teams will join the playoff party?
My first new team pulled out of the hat of non playoff teams is….
Cleveland Browns: Are you done laughing? Me to. It sounds crazy to say the Browns will make the playoffs but who had the Saints winning the Super Bowl, or Miami going 11-5 after winning one game the year before, or Atlanta making the playoffs in 2008.
In the NFL craziness happens. Here is why the Browns can surprise
1. Jake Delhomme isn’t as bad as you think.
Sure Jake was a disaster last year but after his train wreck 2009 playoff game the Panthers should have let him go. He needed a new start now he can get one and he is better than Brady Quinn.
2. Browns won their last four games
Normally I’m not big on believing one year carries over to the next but the Browns did at least prove they like playing for Eric Mangini. Everyone said Mangini was awful and players hated him but they didn’t quit on him when they easily could have. The Browns open the season in Tampa then host Kansas City in Week 2. Cleveland starting 2-0 isn’t far fetched. In 2006 the Saints opened by beating a horrible Browns team then went to Green Bay and beat a mediocre Packer bunch. Suddenly the Saints were 2-0 and while the national media didn’t think they were any good the Saints themselves thought different and more importantly they had momentum. Bad teams need good starts more than teams with a history of winning. If the Colts or Saints start slow they say, “We will be ok. We know what we are doing.” If bad team starts 0-2 they think, “Here we go again. We still stink.”
For a bad team they need to win games early in the season and it doesn’t matter who they beat. The Browns will get off running and squeeze out a 9-7 playoff season. Plus, don’t the sports Gods owe Cleveland a little sunshine after LeBron James gave the city the one finger salute on TV this summer?
Before I came up with the idea of pulling teams out of a hat to make the playoffs, I was thinking of making the Browns my surprise team. The reason is in order to be a surprise team a team needs to have no talk about them being a surprise. Trendy pick surprise teams like the Raiders, Chiefs, and Redskins will flop.
In November everyone will be saying, “I can’t believe team X is 7-5 and fighting for a playoff spot. Who saw that coming?” The Browns will be that team. Also, grab Jerome Harrison and Mohamed Massaquoi for fantasy.
My second team who didn’t make the playoffs in 2009 but will in 2010 is…
Miami Dolphins: Not a wild selection pulled from the hat here. The Dolphins added Brandon Marshall on offense to help Chad Henne. They have a nice combo at running back with Ricky Williams/Ronnie Brown and will be better on defense because last year they played two rookie corners. The one thing I don’t like is their schedule. They open in Buffalo then go to Minnesota before returning home to host the Jets and Patriots.
If they can survive the rough schedule during the season’s first half they can make run late.
The final selection of a new playoff team for 2010 is…..
Tennessee Titans: My Super Bowl pick going into last year will be 4-0 heading into their Oct. 10th showdown with the Cowboys. Vince Young might throw like a girl but as a starting QB his record is 26-13.
They also have some guy named Chris Johnson. I’ve heard good things about him.
So there you have it. My 2010 AFC predictions pulled straight from two hats. No Colts or Patriots but three AFC North teams. Ain’t no party like a AFC North Party! Congratulations to San Diego, Baltimore and Cincinnati for being able to return to the playoffs.
The hat has spoken. Next week I’ll preview the Saints 2010 season, the NFC, and give you a useless Super Bowl pick.
Ralph Malbrough is a Saints fan living in Houston. Email him at ralphmalbrough@hotmail.com, find him on facebook, or listen to his Saints podcast at http://www.blogtalkradio.com/forecastradio.
