Alexandra Cranford / WWL Eyewitness News Forecast Team

A weekly discussion of the tropics from the Eyewitness News Forecast Team

Things are looking nice and quiet this week. Not much activity is turning up around the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea.

An upper level low pressure center over south Florida will bring some showers to Florida and the Bahamas, but it likely won't gain enough steam to start any circulation.

Other than that, a few tropical waves could roll off the coast of Africa, but they'll have a hard time strengthening beneath the deep layer of dry air from the Sahara Desert.

The good news is that models aren't showing much activity next week either. Still plenty of time for things to change, but it looks like the tropics could stay pretty tranquil all the way through the end of July.

Here's why that's especially good news: Historically there's about a 30 percent increase in activity when we move from MID July to LATE July.

Click to enlarge

Click to enlarge

Take a look at the origins of named storms that have formed in MID July over the past 60 years or so, compared to those that formed in late July. Note the increase especially in the Gulf of Mexico.

Bottom line: even though we normally see an uptick in activity during the second part of July, models are indicating we may get a break this year.

Still, things can change quickly, so of course we'll be watching closely for any developments. Keep watching your tropical video updates from the Eyewitness Forecast Team. Carl, Laura, Derek and Alexandra post new updates several times a day.

Remember to check back next week for your updated Talkin' Tropics discussion. Every week, we'll post a fresh tropics forecast for the week ahead.

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