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How an Obama administration might impact Louisiana

07:32 PM CST on Wednesday, November 5, 2008

Alan Sayre / Associated Press

Barack Obama's election as president could have significant impact on Louisiana's economy if many of the planks of his campaign make the transition from talking points to policy.

Associated Press

President-elect Barack Obama at his celebration party.

Politically, the state is at a bit of a disadvantage. While its incumbent Democrat senator, Mary Landrieu, won re-election Tuesday, the congressional delegation is dominated by Republicans. The GOP also holds the governor's office with Bobby Jindal, named as a possible GOP vice presidential candidate during John McCain's run for the White House.

Further complicating the picture is the national financial meltdown.

However, a basket of local-impact issues will capture Louisiana's attention as the new president goes to work with the Democrat-controlled Congress. Among them:

ENERGY TAX

With one of the nation's lowest income rates and the future of energy rates a constant uncertainty, a $1,000 emergency energy rebate would be a welcome development for many Louisiana residents.

But the method of financing it -- a windfall tax on oil company profits -- could result in cutbacks in one of the state's major employment sectors, one that typically generates more than 5,000 jobs at above-state-average pay levels. Oil prices are dropping and some companies already are trimming exploration budgets, a combination that, in the past, has encouraged industry consolidation -- usually moving Louisiana jobs and business into Texas.

Louisiana State University economist Loren Scott said exploration cutbacks would put a chill on the economy of the Houma-Thibodaux area, which is heavily involved in petroleum-related shipbuilding and offshore fabrication. He also said development of the Haynesville shale deposit in northwestern Louisiana, considered one of the largest natural gas finds in years with 29 to 39 trillion cubic feet, could be set back.

INCOME-CORPORATE TAXES

The president-elect has said he favors raising income taxes on families earning more than $250,000 and individuals making over $200,000, along with a rise in corporate taxes and $80 billion in tax breaks for poor workers and the elderly.

For Louisiana, the major impact point would be how the still-to-be-shaped plan would affect small, entrepreneurial businesses whose owners often file their profits on their income taxes -- known as an S corporation. Those businesses have been coming more into play in Louisiana -- and some small businesses have warned that Obama's plan could cut into their ability to expand payrolls.

At the same time, though, Obama said he wants to eliminate capital gains taxes on startup and small businesses and reduce the burden of the self-employed having to pay both the employee and employer side of the payroll tax.

INFRASTRUCTURE INVESTMENT

Obama has proposed spending $60 billion over 10 years to finance transportation projects, an investment he says is needed to restore infrastructure and provide jobs. With, at last count, about $14 billion in backed-up highway projects, Louisiana see a burst of construction jobs -- and maybe a sharp reduction in potholes. Additional spending on New Orleans-area levees and coastal restoration would boost the job total.

ALTERNATIVE ENERGY

If Obama presses with a proposal to spend $150 billion over 10 years on clean energy, Louisiana might find itself bidding against other states for the businesses -- and jobs -- that would go along with wide-scale development. It would be a chance to get in on the front end of an emerging industry.

LABOR

The president-elect wants to enforce workers' rights to organize into the unions and ban the use of permanent replacements for strikers. Union activists have long targeted the state's hospitality sector, especially in New Orleans, for organization. The manufacturing sector, once a union stronghold in Louisiana, could see revitalized organization drives.

MINIMUM WAGE

Raising the minimum wage inevitably brings the argument of lifting the standard of living for the working poor versus elimination of starter jobs for young unskilled people in a state that has high numbers of both.

MANUFACTURING

Obama wants to eliminate tax credits for U.S. businesses that ship jobs overseas. Of particular interest to what's left of the General Motors Corp. plant in Shreveport, he said he wants to meet with the heads of the domestic automakers and the United Auto Workers union to craft a strategy that will make the U.S. industry competitive again. At this stage, the 2,000 people who have recently lost jobs at GM-Shreveport might say that's easier said than done.

MILITARY

How much -- and for what -- an Obama administration wants to spend on the military will affect installations such as Fort Polk and Barksdale Air Force Base, which have a direct economic impact of at least $6 billion annually, as well as military contractors such as Northrop Grumman Corp. and Textron Inc.

This often-overlooked aspect of Louisiana's economy -- at least until the national base closure panel meets -- employs thousands, both in the direct military and civilian sectors. Past cutbacks -- such as the closure of England Air Force Base in Alexandria in the early 1990s -- have taken years to overcome.