NEW ORLEANS -- Not so long ago, there was an economic joke in Louisiana during national recessions: let the rest of the country suffer from high oil prices while the state enjoys prosperity.

That line has been worn out. With the current economic crisis, there's plenty of grief to go around, and a lot of factors are emerging to emerge to create what could be a perfect storm for Louisiana.

Start with oil prices, at $147 per barrel in July and now around a third of that price.

As far as jobs go, a group of state university economists projected in October that Louisiana would add only 1,300 net non-farm jobs in 2009 -- a hasty recalculation made after Wall Street started its meltdown and oil prices began to slide.

Even after adjustments, that less-than-stellar figure is based on oil prices still averaging around $90, a level not seen since October.

State government, staring at a $1 billion budget shortfall next year, has been hit by sticker shock, along with a drop in corporate and personal income taxes and flat sales tax collections. In times of increased unemployment, income taxes drop and with consumer confidence indexes registering somewhere in the pits, sales taxes also fall.

But Gov. Bobby Jindal says he won't consider tax increases to fill the shortfall.

Gauging the current jobs picture in Louisiana has been something of a tough nut. Everything got skewed in September when hurricanes Gustav and Ike visited. The October figures don't won't be released until Tuesday.

But in August, non-farm job growth had slowed. From July 2007 to July 2008, Louisiana gained 32,700 jobs. The August comparison was up by 18,200.

Now, don't expect the oil industry to shut down over falling prices. Major companies have billions of dollars to spend on new exploration -- and some analysts say 2009 will be a great time for them to buy up small independents that may have trouble obtaining development financing and get additional reserves at favorable -- translated bargain-basement -- prices.

Big Oil will want the oil and natural gas, and not necessarily the Louisiana headquarters offices and employees of the bought-out companies, if those types of deals occur.

Immediate concerns are led by the General Motors Corp. plant in Shreveport, which is down to about 700 employees from a one-time payroll of 3,000. Blame that one on Hummers and pickup trucks, two fuel-guzzlers among the GM lineup that got caught flat-footed by $4 a gallon gasoline, and now, the credit crunch. Federal bailout or not, Shreveport is small fry in the overall picture for GM, which says it could be out of cash by the end of the year.

Keep on eye on chemicals, the basic ingredient in a lot of consumer products, which, not surprisingly, are in reduced demand. The BASF plant in Geismar gave the first indication of trouble in that sector. Last week, BASF cut production worldwide and the 800 Geismar employees got away with using their vacation up by the end of the year. Workers at 80 other BASF plants around the world, however, found out their operations would be closed temporarily.

There have been some significant positives over the past few months -- the announcement of a new Shaw Group Inc. nuclear assembly plant in Lake Charles employing 1,500 for example, and the hope of Nucor Steel Corp., which has narrowed sites for a new iron plant initially employing 500 to southeastern Louisiana and Brazil, will come here. But Nucor's board hasn't decided whether to move ahead now with construction -- and the national economic climate is deteriorating.

Hey wait. Why worry in a state where there are, by government count, 90,000 skilled job openings and have led to Jindal's workforce development overhaul? Well, the Census Bureau recently spelled that mystery out, one that had been raised earlier by demographer Elliott Stonecipher: a disproportionate number of college-educated people -- skilled workers and taxpayers -- are moving out of the state, versus coming in.

So where is Louisiana going? How about the national economy? There are 1,001 speculative theories -- many qualifying as hogwash a short time after their issuance -- but one thing is pretty much for sure: The state is in for a rough ride with the rest of the United States.

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EDITOR'S NOTE: Alan Sayre is the New Orleans-based business writer for The Associated Press.

(Copyright 2008 by The Associated Press. All Rights Reserved.)