A weekly discussion of the tropics from the Eyewitness News Forecast Team
The tropics are fairly quiet for now, and it looks like no big systems will develop over the next several days. Right now, high pressure is controlling the central north Atlantic over Bermuda.
Plenty of wind shear is hanging over the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico, so tropical development isn’t likely this week.
One spot in the Gulf that lacks wind shear is way to the south from northern Mexico to the Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are hanging out there, but models have that moisture subsiding by the end of the week. A tropical wave near the Bahamas is kicking up some showers and thunderstorms over Florida, but the wave should weaken by midweek. High pressure over our part of the southeastern U.S. should ensure mainly dry conditions for us.
June is typically a pretty quiet month in the tropics, but the hurricane season is off to an early start this year. Tropical Storm Andrea, the first storm of this season, formed on June 5 and dumped heavy rain on the East Coast from Florida to New England. Andrea formed about a month earlier than normal - on average, the first named storm doesn't pop up until July 9.
Still, this season has been quiet compared to last year, when two tropical storms spawned in May, even before the Atlantic hurricane season had officially started on June 1.
Forecasts show this season will be an active one. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicts a total of 13 to 20 named storms, seven to 11 hurricanes and three to six major hurricanes of Category 3 or higher.
Check back next week for your updated tropical outlook. Every week, the Eyewitness News Forecast Team will post a fresh tropics forecast for the week ahead.