Alexandra Cranford / WWL Eyewitness News Forecast Team
A weekly discussion of the tropics from the Eyewitness News Forecast Team
So, what’s new this week in the tropics? The most obvious newcomer is Hurricane Cosme (pronounced COS-may) in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Cosme is far removed from us and is NOT a threat to the United States in any way.
The storm will move away from the Mexican coast out into the Pacific Ocean. It will weaken by the end of the week as it heads over cooler waters.
A rainy pattern will dominate most of Mexico and Central America this week. That wet pattern could shift closer to our area by next week.
The rest of the tropics are quiet right now. A few weak tropical waves have sprung up over the Caribbean Sea and farther out in the Atlantic Ocean. These masses of moisture won’t be able to develop much this week, but they are precursors of the increased activity we’ll see in July.
Click to enlarge
This graphic shows the percentage of named storms that form each month during hurricane season. The uptick from June to July is just 2 percent, but activity jumps to 27 percent by August. The most active month is September, when about a third of the season's named storms typically form. These percentages are based on data that goes back to 1950.
Right now models are indicating some tropical development brewing near the Bay of Campeche by the end of next week. Whether the system will actually develop remains to be seen. Plenty of systems show up on long-range models, but never actually form. Of course, we’ll be watching the tropics closely through the week.
Check back next week for your updated tropical outlook. Every week, the Eyewitness News Forecast Team will post a fresh tropics forecast for the week ahead.