WWL Eyewitness News Forecast Team
A weekly discussion of the tropics from the Eyewitness News Forecast Team
The main focus in the tropics this week is Tropical Depression #2, so let’s discuss that first: The depression formed Monday morning in the western Caribbean Sea. It will keep moving west/northwest over the Yucatan peninsula and the southern Bay of Campeche before it makes landfall a second time over central Mexico by Thursday. The storm should weaken and spread out as it moves inland, but it will still dump heavy rain on Mexico and Central America. The storm won’t bring any direct impacts to us in the United States.
Otherwise, we’re watching another tropical disturbance in the Caribbean Sea near the Windward Islands, where a broad low pressure area is stirring up clouds and showers.
Will the disturbance develop into anything? It doesn’t look likely. Lots of wind shear over the Caribbean Sea will make it hard for any systems to get organized.
That’s good news: the Caribbean Sea is one of the prime locations for tropical storm origins this month. So if wind shear is shutting down development there, one of the biggest areas of concern will remain nice and quiet for now.
The red dots show where past tropical storms originated during the 10-day stretch from June 21 to June 30. The data starts in 1851 and runs through 2009. Image credit: National Hurricane Center.
The other prime location for June tropical development is the Gulf of Mexico… so is anything brewing there this week? Again, we have good news: dry air is dominating much of the Gulf right now. That will deprive potential systems from the moist, warm environment that normally fuels them. Only the extreme southern Gulf will see above average rainfall this week, mainly due to Tropical Depression #2.
Models show no big activity forming up in the Atlantic Basin over the next week or so. However, long-range models are indicating some development in the Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico by the first few days of July. Remember to check back next week for your updated Talkin’ Tropics forecast. Every week, the Eyewitness News Forecast Team will post a fresh tropics forecast for the week ahead.