Alexandra Cranford / WWL Eyewitness News Forecast Team
A weekly discussion of the tropics from the Eyewitness News Forecast Team
It’s a great way to start the month of August: with really low potential for tropical storms. Right now the tropics just aren’t a great breeding ground for active weather.
Here’s why: first, there’s still a lot of wind shear out there. Those strong winds will help knock down any storms that try to develop.
Second, there’s a ton of arid air in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere. The dusty, dry air from the Sahara Desert stretches from Africa all the way across the Atlantic Ocean to near the western Caribbean Sea. That’s a huge swath of dry air.
When you look at satellite shots like the one at the top of this article, you can see some swirls of clouds and showers scattered around the Atlantic Basin. A few waves are sliding off the coast of Africa. Some cloudiness is associated with a front in the western Atlantic.
But those little spots of moisture aren’t very threatening. The bone-dry air and strong winds farther up in the atmosphere will stifle any development in those areas for at least the next several days.
Bottom line: things look nice and quiet for this week.
On average, the first hurricane of the season appears around August 10. Luckily, it looks like we’ll coast through that date without an active storm out there.
What about next week, you ask? Some long-range models are hinting that conditions may become a bit more favorable for storms by next week. If that pans out, we’ll see a higher chance for tropical development by the middle to end of August.
Of course, long-range models are far from accurate. We’ll be watching things closely, as 80 percent of tropical storms form in the upcoming span from August to October.
Keep checking your tropical video updates, which are updated several times a day.
Check back next week for your updated Talkin' Tropics discussion. Every week, we'll post a fresh tropics forecast for the week ahead.