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Iowa caucuses could predict Democratic nominee, but not king or queen maker

The ultimate expectation for the Democratic field is defeating President Trump.

NEW ORLEANS — Primary season is personal, and the run-up to the Iowa caucuses has been filled with presidential candidates getting face time with voters.

"So, this is what makes Iowa unique. The candidates are on the ground. They're attending people's homes, restaurants — whatever to make that personal contact to convince these individuals to support them for the nomination,” said political analyst Ed Chervenak.

Since Iowa is the first state to vote in the primary season, the caucuses take on huge significance. But, they're not necessarily king or queen makers.  When Republicans have been in the mix, fewer than half who finished first in Iowa went on to be nominated.

Iowa has a better record picking Democratic nominees.  All but three caucus winners went on to be the party's nominee.  Chervenak said perhaps what Iowa does best is to expose the strengths and weaknesses of candidates.  

"So, it's all about managing expectations. One of the things about Iowa is, it'll begin to narrow the field if you don't meet those expectations," said Chervenak.

The ultimate expectation for the Democratic field is defeating President Trump. While the Iowa caucuses are first in the primaries, preventing another four years for the President will be a repeating Democrat theme straight through to November.

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