NEW ORLEANS — Jameis Winston does have a torn ACL and he’s out for the season. The NFL trade deadline is Tuesday. Sean Payton has said that he’s happy with his current quarterback room, which means there are three guys who will now play quarterback for the Saints.
Rookie Ian Book will not be starting. It’s one of two guys – Taysom Hill or Trevor Siemian – and Monday, Payton would not tip his hand.
The ‘Who’s Starting Mystery’ is an advantage Payton will have for at least one week and he’s going to play that advantage.
It’s a shame for Jameis Winston, who had done so many good things in seven games. He and Sean Payton really seemed to be finding a nice groove together.
And, he’s a fun, energetic, positive guy. It just stinks.
We’ll get to the big picture in a moment, but first, here are 4 takeaways.
Fourth is the Deonte difference and the return of Mark Ingram.
Without Deonte Harris and Taysom Hill, the Saints offense struggled in Seattle. With Harris back, that changed on Sunday. Deonte Harris seven total touches for 138 yards and his 22-yard reverse on the go-ahead drive might have been the biggest offensive play of the game.
Harris is a unique weapon that defenses have to overplay. Getting him back made an enormous difference.
Along the same lines, was the return of Mark Ingram.
The former and current Saints running back clearly has a lot left in the tank. He had eight touches for 52 yards and that helped take some of the pounding off of Alvin Kamara. That was a great trade.
Third, the real difference in the game was turnovers. The Saints were plus-3 on Sunday. Bruce Arians became the Tampa head coach in 2019. In five regular season games against Sean Payton, his Bucs have committed 13 turnovers and the Saints have just committed three. That’s a plus-10 for the Saints.
And the Saints are 5-0 in those games. In the playoff loss last season, the Saints committed four turnovers and got none.
Turnovers have been the difference in the series.
And, since 2019, this was the eighth game in which the Saints were plus-3 or better in the turnover margin.
They are 8-0 in those games, but that’s not surprising.
In 39 games over the last three seasons, the Saints have now won the turnover battle 18 times and lost it 9 times and have been even in turnovers 12 times.
When even, the Saints are 7-5. When they lose the turnover battle, they are 6-3. But in the 18 games where they won the turnover battle, they are 17-1.
It’s the surest marker for Saints success. The point is, even when they don’t win the turnover battle, the Saints are good, but when they do, they’re great.
Second, the Bucs spent half of the game in the penalty box. On some of the flags, the Saints got lucky. A bad Trevor Siemian interception was wiped away by a flag, but a lot of it was the Bucs being an undisciplined mess. The Saints were flagged twice for 10 yards, while the Bucs picked up 11 penalties for 99 yards, which led to an incredible six first downs by penalty for the Saints, by far the most of the season.
And, at number one, I guess the 2021 season is just going to be defined by the great unknown. It’s a new question each week. Now, it’s ‘Who is the quarterback?’ And still, ‘When is Mike Thomas returning?’
The injuries to front line guys have been dizzying. There have been five different kickers and three of them wore the number 6.
And how will the offense change now without Jameis? The one ‘known’ is the defense. Football Outsiders has a complicated system for evaluating defenses. They have the Saints as the third best overall defense.
The point is that with a backup quarterback and no Mike Thomas, the Saints beat the world champs, who were playing great coming in to the game. They beat them by nine.
Sean Payton thrives in the unknown and he’s got a great defense. I think the Saints are definitely a playoff team and more is possible.