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A hurricane in the Gulf in May? Not so fast...

Any forecast predicting anything two weeks out is highly inaccurate.

NEW ORLEANS — Regarding the tropics...

There is nothing out there right now, but if you've been on social media the last couple of days, there was a great deal of hype and I did make an extensive post about it because an image began circulating on Thursday and was shared all over the place.

It shows ONE model run- the GFS- originating on Thursday morning at 7 a.m. that shows a projection on May 28, 15 days from now, with the post saying, "Hurricane, late May, Gulf of Mexico."

That's it. No explanation beyond that. And the model went viral.

The EXACT SAME model, from Friday morning, also projecting to May 28, looks... a little different. The hurricane mysteriously disappeared.

I reiterate once again, the model from Thursday morning is ONE run of the model and it is projecting to the farthest extent of the model, which is highly inaccurate.

The point is, there is no point in viewing models that far into the future. Any kind of accuracy in a reasonable forecast would only extend out about a week, with the closer in you go the more accurate the forecast tends to be. 

Once you go past two weeks and beyond that, it is essentially a joke, and no credible meteorologist with a degree would show a graphic like that without any kind of explanation.

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