NEW ORLEANS — A weak upper-level low and trough is over the western Gulf of Mexico. Fortunately, this is not expected to develop into anything. It will help to bring us some much needed scattered showers and storms with mostly cloudy skies today. The best chance of seeing storms will be south of the lakes. Keep the umbrella handy! High temperatures will only make it into the lower 90s thanks to the added clouds and rain. 

The low will slowly move into Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday as a mid-level area of high pressure builds over us from the north. We will be far enough east of the low to only see a stray shower or storm on Tuesday and dry weather on Wednesday. Expect much more sunshine and hot temperatures in the mid 90s return each day.

Hurricane Humberto continues to sit north of the Bahamas, but it will turn NE and then E today. It is sitting over the Gulf Stream, so the forecast calls for it to strengthen into a Category 2 hurricane mid-week. Then it will brush by Bermuda Wednesday into Thursday before turning NE and going out to sea. There is a good chance this could become a major hurricane. Fortunately, this is not a threat to the U.S. 

Invest 97 is in the middle of the Atlantic. It is an area of low pressure that is getting better organized. Forecast models show it strengthening into a tropical depression in a day or two. Then possibly into a tropical storm and it would get the name Imelda. It will stay out a sea and is not a threat to land.

Tracking the Tropics: Path, Spaghetti Models

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2019 Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 10 to 17 named storms. It says five to nine of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Names

Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 14 named storms, 7 to become hurricanes and two to hit major status.

IBM's Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors. Accuweather calls for 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major storms.

Hurricane Season Update
Dave Nussbaum


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