NEW ORLEANS — Tropics: Hurricane Jerry continues to weaken thanks to stronger wind shear as it moves west northwest. It is now a Category 1 hurricane. The storm is forecast to remain a weak hurricane as it heads just north of the Lesser Antilles and just north of Puerto Rico by this weekend. It will likely still bring heavy rain, gusty winds and rough seas to these islands.

There are also three other disturbances we're keeping an eye on. The first is a tropical wave in the Caribbean that is producing extensive t-storms, but it fighting a lot of wind shear. It currently has a low chance of development as it drifts west northwest. 

The other tropical wave, known as Invest 99, is east of the Lesser Antilles. It currently has a low medium chance of development as it heads west. We'll keep an eye on it long term. It's forecast could be rather tricky thanks to Jerry. 

A tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa has a high chance of development by next week. It will have to be monitored long term, but it's too soon to know exactly how this system will evolve. Current models send it out to sea.

Tracking the Tropics: Path, Spaghetti Models

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2019 Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 10 to 17 named storms. It says five to nine of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Names
TEGNA

Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 14 named storms, 7 to become hurricanes and two to hit major status.

IBM's Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors. Accuweather calls for 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major storms.

Hurricane Season Update
Dave Nussbaum

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