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Beta moving toward Texas, struggling with dry air and shear

As the storm tracks to our west early this week, rain and coastal flooding will be the main impacts for south Louisiana.

NEW ORLEANS —

Tropical Storm Beta

10 A.M. Sunday update: 

Beta is moving very slowly west northwest at 3 mph. Winds remain the same at 60 mph. The National Hurricane Center's path takes the storm into Texas or close to the Texas coast by Monday into Tuesday.

Credit: Payton Malone

The system may not get any stronger than it is now. Beta has been struggling due to dry air wrapping around from the western side. The upper shear is starting to relax a bit but is still present. 

The thinking really hasn't changed with regards to the track. A building ridge will begin steering the storm westward. The ridge doesn't last long (Sunday to Monday) as it quickly shifts eastward, leaving Beta behind. At this point, Beta will go nearly stationary near the Texas coast, either inland or just offshore.

Beta will then wait for a trough to deepen by late Tuesday to Wednesday, finally kicking what's left toward western and northern Louisiana. The trough will also be associated with wind shear, which is why the NHC weakens the storm during this time from a tropical storm to then a depression.

Impacts will be rainfall, possibly 3-5+ inches across much of southeast Louisiana with isolated 7"+. We also expect coastal flooding of 1-3 feet along the coast and in Lake Pontchartrain. Rainfall forecasts are not set in stone - there could be changes. 

Winds will remain breezy through much of this week as Beta remains in the region and a few tornadoes are possible since we're on the far east side of the system.

After the chance for some showers even into Thursday and Friday, it finally looks drier on Saturday with a few showers.

Atlantic

  • There is a small feature off the east of coast of Florida that has a low chance of development as it dives southwest. It doesn't look like much right now, but we'll keep our eyes on it.
  • Tropical Storm Wilfred formed on Friday. This storm will head northwest and possibly weaken early next week. It's not currently a threat to the United States.
  • Hurricane Teddy is a major hurricane heading toward Bermuda. The storm should start to weaken as it approaches the island thanks to cooler waters, but could still bring impacts by Monday. It could then continue on toward Nova Scotia or Newfoundland.
  • Another tropical wave coming off the coast of Africa has a medium chance of development over the next few days.

 

HURRICANE CENTER: Latest Tracks, Models & Radar - Click here.

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