NEW ORLEANS — The tropics are quiet and I'm not expecting development in the next 5 days.
There are a number of tropical waves coming off Africa. They will be worth watching as the models are trying to develop a few of them over the next few weeks. It is that time of year, the Cabo Verde Season, where we look for storm to develop near the Cabo Verde Islands and track to the west.
NOAA has released their hurricane season forecast update and calls for an 'Extremely Active' season. The forecast calls for 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major. These numbers already include the 9 named storms & 2 hurricanes. The reason for the extremely active season:
• Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic & Caribbean
• Enhanced West African Monsoon (rainy) season - causes tropical waves
• Possible La Nina forming in the months ahead
• Reduced wind shear over the Atlantic Basin - allows storms to develop
Now is the time to be prepared for the rest of the season. Typically, the season becomes more active in the next few weeks with the peak on September 10th.
The expert forecasters at Colorado State have issued their August update on the 2020 Hurricane Season. Their forecast now calls for 24 named storms (including the 9 already), 12 hurricanes (including the 2 already) and 5 major hurricanes.
That's an increase of 4 named storms, 3 hurricanes and 1 major hurricane.
Should there be 24 named storms, they would run out of names and have to go to the Greek alphabet, like they did in 2005.
This increase in the amount of named storms comes from the already active season in just the first two months. There have been 9 named storms - a record through July!
The factors that are leading to the increased number of storms stem from the extremely warmer than normal Atlantic Ocean. Right now, the Atlantic is the 4th warmest on record. Warmer water means more fuel for the storms to develop.
There is also a very active African monsoon (rainy season). This leads to more strong tropical waves that area expected to move off Africa into the Atlantic and develop into tropical systems.
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