NEW ORLEANS — We're watching multiple tropical waves across the Atlantic, but Invest 95L near Africa has the best chance of development over the next two to five days. It has a medium chance (50%) of organizing into a depression or tropical storm through midweek.
After that it looks like it will face dry air/shear as it gets closer to the Caribbean Sea. We'll keep an eye on it, but this is not an imminent threat. We have plenty of time to watch this one.
We expect to see more tropical waves throughout the next month or so as we roll through the heart of hurricane season. Of course, you do have to monitor these waves even if models don't seem to develop them into much.
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HURRICANE SEASON FORECAST TO BECOME "EXTREMELY ACTIVE"
NOAA released their August hurricane season forecast update and calls for an 'Extremely Active' season. The forecast calls for 19-25 named storms, 7-11 hurricanes and 3-6 major. These numbers already include the nine named storms and two hurricanes.
The reasons for the extremely active season:
• Warmer than normal sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Caribbean
• Enhanced West African Monsoon (rainy) season - causes tropical waves
• Possible La Nina forming in the months ahead
• Reduced wind shear over the Atlantic Basin - allows storms to develop
Now is the time to be prepared. Typically, the season becomes more active in the next few weeks with the peak on September 10th.
The expert forecasters at Colorado State have issued their August update on the 2020 hurricane season. Their forecast now calls for 24 named storms (including the nine already), 12 hurricanes (including the two already) and five major hurricanes.
That's an increase of four named storms, three hurricanes and one major hurricane.
Should there be 24 named storms, they would run out of names and have to go to the Greek alphabet, like they did in 2005.