NEW ORLEANS — A trough off the coast of the southeast US has a low 10% chance of development as of Saturday evening. It is headed out into the Atlantic. 

Of more interest to us is a wave in the western Caribbean. It is very disorganized as it battles wind shear. The wave is expected to move into the Bay of Campeche by Wednesday and then drift north over the western Gulf through next weekend. It is still several days out from even being in the Gulf, so it's hard to pin down specifics - but right now, models show this may remain a messy system and could stay to our west along the Texas or southwest Louisiana coast next weekend. We will watch closely over the coming days.

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2019 Hurricane Season Outlook

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration predicted 10 to 17 named storms. It says five to nine of them will become hurricanes and two to four of those would become major hurricanes with 111 mph winds or higher.

2019 Atlantic Hurricane Names

Colorado State University, which pioneered hurricane season predictions, is forecasting 14 named storms, 7 to become hurricanes and two to hit major status.

IBM's Weather Company calls for 14 named storms, seven hurricanes and three majors. Accuweather calls for 12 to 14 named storms, five to seven hurricanes and two to four major storms.

Hurricane Season Update
Dave Nussbaum


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