NEW ORLEANS — NOAA is forecasting a season of record-breaking activity, predicting with 70% confidence, 17-25 named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes.
Colorado State’s Annual forecast is pretty much right down the middle. Its forecast, released in April, predicts 23 named storms, 11 hurricanes, and five major hurricanes.
Forecasting hurricane activity – especially months ahead of time – is not a perfect science. Both NOAA and CSU update their expectations as the season goes on.
But we were curious how accurate predictions have been in recent years.
Let’s go back to 2020; an unforgettable year, where Louisiana found itself in the ‘cone of uncertainty’ eight times.
In 2020, named storms, hurricanes, and major hurricanes, all exceeded the forecasted numbers by NOAA and CSU. Where 13-19 named storms were predicted, the Atlantic Basin saw 30.
In 2021, the Gulf again was more active than predicted by both NOAA and CSU, with 21 named storms, after 13-20 were predicted. NOAA and CSU were accurate in predicting major hurricanes, of which the Atlantic Basin saw four.
But 2022 was a calmer year in the Gulf, on the low end of both organizations’ predictions. And 2023 saw slightly more activity than predicted.
All this to say: this far out, predictions are tough and things will definitely change.
Our meteorologists are keeping an eye on all of it and will be updating our free WWL Louisiana app throughout the season.
The WWL Louisiana Hurricane Special airs Friday, May 31 at 6:30.
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