NEW ORLEANS — In 11 weeks when the postmortems are written on why the 2023 New Orleans Saints season didn't meet expectations, led to fan disappointment, and probably coaching firings, the 31-24 loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars will be the inflection point where the Saints drew all the wrong conclusions.
The loss was really the worst case scenario for any real change to happen during the season.
The Saints looked well on their way to getting their head kicked in and sending America to bed early when they were down 24-9 and looked simply of incapable of ever scoring in the red zone. We were going to get sad Dennis Allen after the game saying, “We will look at everything. We aren't good enough.” Yada, yada, yada....
Instead the Saints showed JUST enough life in the fourth quarter that they probably won't do significant changes to the offense. They are close they'll say. Just need better execution in big moments, better on third down, don't drop touchdowns, be better in the red zone they'll tell us. They'll stay the course and the course is failure.
The fact the Saints refused to run the ball to try to get the tying touchdown at the end of the game is even more infuriating when you remember when the Saints were down 24-9 and had first and goal at the Jaguar 2 and absolutely had to have six to stay in the game, they ran the ball four consecutive times. They even brought in defensive tackle Khalen Saunders to add fat guy defensive fun to the proceedings.
Facing fourth and goal from the 1, in a must score situation, the Saints broke out this glorious formation. 7 offensive linemen, two tight ends, Saunders and Taysom Hill. Just in-your-face-we-are-running Taysom. Stop us. We don't care.
It worked. Taysom scored.
Yet with the game again in the balance with under a minute left they didn't try that again? Not even once.
With the game on the line the Saints seem to have this weird addiction to calling the goal line, fade pass play, which ESPN's Mina Kimes detailed 3 years ago is maybe the worst touchdown scoring idea since Mike Dikta thought playing 89 Billy Joes at quarterback was a good plan.
They decided that Michael Thomas making a ridiculous touchdown catch that, according to Next Gen Stats only had a 17.7% chance of being completed, was the way to go. The Saints loved those odds and like a bad blackjack player who splits face cards and somehow pulls off a miracle win, went all in on the end zone fade in the biggest moment.
Going with the play that is likely to fail 82.3% of the time is galaxy football brain stuff.
Dennis Allen's explanation for the Saints end of game play calling and failure to use Jimmy Graham in the red zone only added fuel to my rage. When asked why the Saints don't think it's a good idea to use a guy who has scored 86 NFL touchdowns near the goal line Allen said it was “A staff decision.”
Dennis that's not a real answer and makes it sound like you are involved in the offense on the sideline as much as I am from my sofa. It's as if Dennis Allen is some innocent bystander as the Saints build a monument of failure inside the 20-yard-line. How exactly did the Saints come to a staff decision to not play Jimmy Graham in the red zone?
If the head coach of the team won't give us an answer, I guess we will just have to use our imagination. Rock paper scissors, maybe a Ouija board, or throwing darts at a wall? ANYTHING IS POSSIBLE except the Saints scoring touchdowns consistently in the red zone.
At this point Dennis Allen seems either unwilling or incapable of fixing the Saints offense, so his 10-14 record with the Saints isn't likely to get much better. As John Sigler of Saintswire pointed out on Twitter, Allen's .300 career win percentage is tied for 169th out of 174 head coaches with 60 or more games behind them in NFL history. Hilariously, he's Top 10 all time on the Saints head coaching win list.
The Saints belief that Derek Carr + great defense + horrible NFC South = playoffs forgot one important piece of the equation: well-coached offense. Derek Carr clearly isn't going to elevate anything about an offense, in fact he definitely needs a good offensive coordinator to get him to the lofty heights he had in 2021 when he peaked at 'pretty good'.
So where exactly do the Saints go from here, besides thankfully to a 10-day break saving us from having to watch them?
The Saints 2023 season and Dennis Allen's head coaching career is going to be decided the next three weeks. The Saints will be facing the following three quarterbacks: Gardner Minshew, someone name Tyson Bagnet, and Kirk Cousins (without superstar receiver Justin Jefferson). If the Saints aren't 5-5 or better on November 12 at about 3:30pm then even the mediocrity of the Jim Haslett Era Saints are unreachable heights for Dennis Allen.
I loathe the football nerds who love to talk about tanking, getting high draft picks, and implementing a '5 year plan' to win a Super Bowl. Nothing in my eyes is dumber than the idea, “If you aren't trying to win a Super Bowl, you aren't really trying.” I don't blame the Saints for looking at the NFC South, seeing that it's terrible, and going hard to try and win it. Mickey Loomis attempting to put a winning and competitive product on the field is the right choice to me.
Except, the Saints are failing in an agonizingly Jim Mora 'coulda shoulda woulda' way. It's right there and the Saints can almost get it, but every week it'll always be something different which trips them up. Injuries, or the red zone, or a pass interference penalty, or the kicker, or the play calls, or the uniform choice.
The NFC South is still terrible and even modest 2 consecutive weeks of winning football would put the Saints right back in the thick of the division race but time is running out and Dennis Allen doesn't seem to have the fixes necessary.
Ralph Malbrough is a contributing writer and Saints fan living in Houston. Email him at saintshappyhour@gmail.com, find him on Facebook, or follow him on Twitter at @SaintsForecast or download the Saints Happy Hour Podcast.