NEW ORLEANS — The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has released its early season hurricane forecast for 2024 and, like the one recently from Colorado State, it calls for an extremely busy season.
While the NOAA uses ranges for its forecast, it aligns closely with Colorado State's numbers and it calls for between 17 and 25 named storms; 8-13 hurricanes and 4-7 major hurricanes with windspeeds that reach above 155 mph.
To show how busy a season they are expecting, even the lowest numbers of those ranges are above what is expected in a normal hurricane season.
"Record water temperatures across the Atlantic are one of the main reasons for such high numbers," said Meteorologist Payton Malone. "The water temperature in the main development region of the Atlantic is currently similar to what we see in mid-August. Warmer than normal water creates more fuel for storms to grow. Another driving force behind the record numbers is La Nina is expected to develop over the next few months. Typically La Nina leads to less wind shear in the Atlantic basin. Wind shear can limit activity in the tropics, so with less expected this season, storms will have more opportunities to grow."
The NOAA's explanation for the busy season is very similar to what Malone said and is ominous for those in areas prone to hurricanes.
"The upcoming Atlantic hurricane season is expected to have above-normal activity due to a confluence of factors, including near-record warm ocean temperatures in the Atlantic Ocean, development of La Nina conditions in the Pacific, reduced Atlantic trade winds and less wind shear, all of which tend to favor tropical storm formation," said the NOAA on its web site.