Forecast: What Saints fans need to watch for in the 2022 NFL Draft
Strap in kids, it might be a night of chaos.
The New Orleans Saints 2022 off-season has mostly been uneventful and boring since Sean Payton handed Gayle Benson a king cake on the day he announced his retirement as coach of the Saints.
Well, there was that one week Saints fans yelled at each other over the possibility the team might trade for disgraced and controversial Houston Texans quarterback Deshaun Watson. Like every team and fan base that didn't actually trade for Watson, we just pretended we didn't know Watson, didn't want Watson, have no idea why anyone would bring that up and are just moving along.
Then, Saints General Manager Mickey Loomis went and injected complete and total chaos into the 2022 NFL Draft by trading for the 16th and 19th picks. In 5 minutes on a Monday afternoon, the Saints' off-season went from “Why aren't the Saints doing anything?” to “What the @#$ are the Saints doing!”
Nothing is more exhilarating than the Saints dropping a crazy out-of-the-blue off-season move on us when we least expect it. Good times.
This Saints trade has the added enjoyment of confusing the national media, so of course, they hate anything they don't understand, which only adds to our fun.
Are the Saints planning to trade up from 16 to get a quarterback? Are they planning on taking an offensive tackle to replace the departed Terron Armstead? Could they draft ALL THE RECEIVERS since theirs are mostly terrible?
Might the Saints do the thing they never ever did while Sean Payton was in the building and trade down after trading up?
This would be my dream scenario because all the draft value chart nerds would need to get out their draft pick value tables and abacuses and use math to tell us what we already know about the national media. They think any and all moves the Saints do are bad and eventually, someday soon these reckless moves will ruin the Saints.
Never forget; The draft nerds, like the salary cap nerds, HATE HATE HATE any Saints move because the draft nerds believe accumulating draft picks by trading down is a smart move regardless if those extra picks turn into good players or not.
Mickey Loomis trades down as often as the French Quarter closes. Sure, it has happened, but no one can remember when or give you any details of what or why it actually occurred.
The Saints aren't going to tell us what they are going to do until Roger Goodell announces they are on the clock and he's handed a card with a name on it.
I'm not going to give you your 45689 mock draft to read because everybody knows whenever we read mock drafts we just scroll to see who the Saints pick and ignore the rest. Don't pretend to care who the Detroit Lions are selecting. We both know you don't.
What I am going to do is give you a couple of tips while watching the draft this Thursday night.
Be Ready at 7 p.m. You've been warned. Don't get ready, STAY READY kids.
First up, have all draft day preparation such as food, drink, and viewing location locked in ahead of the 7 p.m. start time this Thursday because Mickey Loomis has the ammunition of 2 first-round picks and a history of trading up.
Picks 16 and 19, if he so desires, can rocket the Saints up the draft board. Don't be thinking, “The Saints pick 16th, I got plenty of time to stop for food on way home from work, interact with my family, grocery shop, etc.” Nope.
Mickey Loomis has traded up 16 times as Saints GM, the NFL draft is in Las Vegas, and the trade with Philadelphia was Mickey hitting the ATM for cash and a run at the blackjack table. Be in front of your television at 7pm kids, or you might miss something HUGE the Saints pull off. The Saints probably aren't trading into the top 5, but using pick #49, depending on your draft value chart of choice, can get them as high #7.
For hurricane season, we have 'The Cone of Uncertainty' for storm paths, and for NFL drafts we have the "Loomis Trade Cone of Uncertainty." The Saints trade warning flag flies starting at pick 7 with the New York Giants. You've been warned. Don't get ready, STAY READY kids.
Know Your RAS Saints aren't looking in RAS poverty.
The second thing is to follow the RAS - short for Relative Athletic Score. I won't go into that much detail, but just know it's a combination of all those drills players do at the NFL combine, and if a player doesn't score at least a nine, the Saints aren't likely to take him.
As my Saints Happy Hour podcast co-host Andrew Juge explained to me, since 2018, the Saints have drafted 15 players. Nine had a RAS score over nine, three had a RAS score over eight, and three had a RAS score over seven.
Ian Book was the lowest at 7.37 and he was a quarterback, where RAS score matters less to teams because quarterbacks don't do all the combine drills. So getting an accurate score is sometimes challenging.
The other two guys that scored in the sevens were Zack Baun and Chauncey Gardner Johnson; both players who played different positions in college than the ones they play for the Saints. So using their college RAS scores for a position they no longer play tells us the Saints will make an exception on RAS for a position switch.
Also, Ceedy Deuce's RAS score for owning Tom Brady is something the Saints couldn't measure but they knew it would be OFF THE CHARTS.
The only exception this year might be Charles Cross, an offensive tackle from Mississippi State. The Saints reportedly love him, but his RAS is 7.58. Cross' RAS is poor because of height, weight, and bench press scores. In the right training plan with the Saints, increasing his weight and bench press might give him a nine RAS a year from now.
All I'm telling you is Google the RAS of that player draft crush you have, and if it's below a nine, find yourself a new draft day BAE cause the Saints likely aren't taking a guy situated in RAS poverty.
My Prediction? Strap in kids, it might be a night of chaos.
Fine, you want my draft prediction for the Saints' first round? As NOLA Twitter legend Skooks reminded me, the Saints already have a player named Taco Charlton, so drafting a corner named Sauce Gardner and a receiver named Jameison Williams feels like it'd be completing the cool food named player triple play.
Finally, this feels like the most exciting Saints draft since probably 1999 when Mike Ditka told the world he'd trade everything for Ricky Williams then actually went and did it. He also ended up on the cover of ESPN The Magazine besides a wedding dress wearing Rickey Williams and was fired after the Saints went 3-13.
Let's hope the Saints get better results than that but this year feels that critical. Saints get this draft right and the streak of 5 straight winning seasons likely continues. Get it wrong and it's off to the football slums with the Jaguars, Jets, Texans, Giants, and Bears.
The Saints' uncertain future with a new coach and roster with more holes than it's had in 5 years will start to take shape Thursday night.
Strap in kids, it might be a night of chaos.
Ralph Malbrough is a contributing writer and Saints fan living in Houston. Email him at saintshappyhour@gmail.com, find him on Facebook, or follow him on Twitter at @SaintsForecast or download the Saints Happy Hour Podcast.
(Warning: The Saints Happy Hour Podcast may contain language that is not suitable for all audiences) .