NEW ORLEANS — The New Orleans Saints offense is so bad, the presidential alert I got on my phone Wednesday told me not to watch or think about the Saints offense because exposure to it was extremely dangerous to my health and well being.
The Saints offense, if we remove the Rashid Shaheed punt return touchdown, is averaging 13.75 points a game. To illustrate how sad that is, the 2020 Saints scored more than 13 points in 1 quarter THIRTEEN TIMES!!!
The parade of horrible Saints offensive stats includes but is not limited to, being 23rd in yards per game, 27th in points, 27th in yards per carry, and just to top it all off with a doo doo cherry....the Saints have the most offensive holding penalties in the NFL through four weeks.
If I only had three words to describe the Saints 2023 offense it would be sad and baffling.
I'm not even sure what they are trying to do.
Drew Brees used to describe the Saints offense this way, "We want to formation you to death, throw the ball all over the place, and play with tempo."
Yes, it was more complicated when you dug into the details and specific plays but that was a pretty great description of what the Saints under Sean Payton wanted to do.
In 2023 I have no idea what the Saints want to be. I do whoever have an idea for what they should be.
Do you know which quarterback had the highest QBR and highest completion percentage when using play action in 2021?
Derek Dallas Carr.
Do you know which team has done the fewest play action passes through four weeks in 2023?
The Saints.
Carr is 6-10 for 49 yards and 2 first downs when Saints run a play action pass.. That's pretty good, do more of that please.
You might be saying, "Ralph, the Saints stink at running the ball, and play action can't work if you can't run the ball."
You'd think that, except offensive head coaches like Sean McVay and Kyle Shanahan figured out play action can work on early downs even if you can't really run the ball. If you can run the ball, your offense becomes the Death Star with play action like the 49ers.
For the 2023 Saints, we'd gladly take average right now.
Sean Payton and Drew Brees didn't run much play-action and the Saints were just fine.
Things have changed.
Think of the Saints running play action this way -- yes their running game isn't very good -- but if Derek Carr looks like he's about to hand off to Alvin Kamara are you going to risk not respecting it if you play linebacker or safety?
As my podcast cohost Andrew Juge pointed out, “You might not need to run the ball effectively for play action to work but your offensive line does have to block well to give your quarterback time to run the play action.”
Whatever the solution, it begins with better blocking.
The Saints better do something to fix this offense, so why not start with the thing that Derek Carr was the best at?
Saints Mood and Mediation Music: Time To Move On -- Tom Petty
The Saints being 2-2 is a miracle if we are being honest. The good news is the NFC is muddled and there is still plenty of time to make something of 2023, but it's time to move on and get going.
As Yogi Berra once said, "It's getting late early." Come on Saints.
The Games
Last Week: 3-2
Season: 13-7
New Orleans (+1.5) at New England: The Patriots offense is averaging just 13.8 points a game. New England quarterback Mac Jones has 5 touchdown passes and 4 interceptions. 30 percent of New England running plays go for NEGATIVE YARDS. The Patriots running game is so, bad running the ball is actually LOSING THEM POINTS according to the advanced stat 'Expected Points Added'.
The Patriot offense is a turnover or a three and out from getting booed off the field in the first quarter Sunday.
Did I mention their offensive line is injured and terrible? Oh and their defense will be without their best pass rusher and their rookie corner who was defensive rookie of the month.
We all fear the black magic of Bill Belichick but if the Saints can just not turn the ball over and get back to being really good on defense, this game should be close.
The Saints offense isn't going to find a solution to their problems but Derek Carr will hit a couple of big throws, Alvin Kamara will rip a long run, and that will be just enough.
Saints 17-13
Atlanta (-2) over Houston: Everyone is shoveling dirt on the Desmond Ridder Era too fast. Seeing Ridder give up a Pick 6 as a cartoon during the ESPN + Toy Story broadcast was pretty special though.
Falcons 27-21
Denver (-2) vs. New York Jets: The Denver defense is so bad Zach Wilson might string together 2 good games in a row. Just kidding.
Broncos 20-17
Tennessee (pick 'em) at Indianapolis: The Titans after looking awful to open the year against the Saints, have slowly started to fix their offensive line and look like they'll be in AFC South race all year. I wish the Saints were improving every week.
Titans 24-20
Baltimore (-3.5) at Pittsburgh: The Steelers offense makes the Saints offense look like it's led by 2011 Drew Brees.
Raven 21-10
Ralph Malbrough is a contributing writer and Saints fan living in Houston. Email him at saintshappyhour@gmail.com, find him on Facebook, or follow him on Twitter at @SaintsForecast or download the Saints Happy Hour Podcast.